GENEVA, 9th October, 2026 (WAM) -- Global trade proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2026 despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, as supply chains adapted and strong investment in artificial intelligence provided a powerful boost to goods trade. However, the resilience was not uniform, with services trade and some regions more exposed to the effects of the conflict. WTO economists have therefore raised the forecast for merchandise trade growth in 2026 while lowering the outlook for services trade.
According to the latest "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" released on 8 October, merchandise trade volume is now expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026, up from the March forecast of 1.9%, before increasing further to 4.1% in 2027. The revision reflects evidence that global supply chains adapted to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets, while strong investment in AI-related infrastructure boosted trade in AI-enabling goods.
Commercial services trade growth is expected to remain positive, although prospects have moderated due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on transport and international travel. Services trade volume is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2026, down from 4.8% in the March forecast, before rising by 6.4% in 2027.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "The numbers reflect trade resilience in action. When disruptions strike, an integrated world economy and a rules-based trading system provide economies flexibility to keep essential products flowing to businesses and households that need them. Nevertheless, some have felt the shock more than others, and not everyone can access emerging opportunities like AI. It is essential to ensure that the rules-based trading system continues to absorb shocks and bridge gaps so that opportunities are open to all."
Merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5% in the first half of 2026, exceeding expectations despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict. The performance reflected the ability of supply chains to adapt to shocks affecting energy, fertilizer and transport markets.
Although crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by roughly 24% and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 47% in the first half of 2026, increased shipments from other suppliers helped limit the decline in global exports to around 6% for crude oil and just 1% for LNG.
Strong demand linked to AI investment more than offset the negative effects of the conflict in the Middle East. Demand for AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, and trade in these products rose by 67% year-on-year, accelerating from the already rapid expansion seen in 2024 and 202.
Given stronger-than-expected merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026, WTO economists now expect world merchandise trade volume to increase by 3.9% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, while global GDP growth is forecast at 2.6% and 2.9%, respectively.
AI-related investment is expected to remain a major driver of merchandise trade through 2027. Global AI infrastructure spending is projected to increase by at least 30% in 2026. Current market projections suggest AI capital expenditure will continue to rise by a further 10-20% in 2027. The conflict in the Middle East is expected to weigh on trade in 2026 through higher energy prices and disruptions to transport route.