BEIJING, 1st November, 2024 (WAM) -- “The Chinese economy is intricate, yet one of the most straightforward ways to assess it is through agricultural and industrial output,” stated Yao Jingyuan, former Chief Economist of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, during the 2024 annual meeting of Harvard Business Review in Beijing.
“In 2024, China has recorded a significant grain harvest and substantial growth in industrial output, underscoring its stable and robust production capacity.”
According to a report from China Economic Net, Yao, who has nearly four decades of experience in economic analysis, is knowledgeable about China's economic indicators. He emphasised the strong performance of the agricultural sector, predicting that national grain output will reach a record 1.4 trillion jin (approximately 700 million tonnes) this year—an increase of around 100 billion jin (50 thousand tons) compared to the nine-year average. This achievement reflects several consecutive years of robust grain production in China and strengthens the country's food security.
Yao emphasied the importance of stable agricultural product supply. “Rather than focusing solely on statistics, one should observe the food market,” he remarked, noting the abundance of meat, poultry, eggs, and vegetables, along with a decline in prices.
Regarding the industrial sector, Yao pointed out that equipment manufacturing grew by 7.5%, while high-tech manufacturing surged by 9.1% in the first three quarters of this year. “Manufacturing remains the backbone of the industry and is gaining momentum, particularly in the high-tech sector,” he noted, adding that energy consumption per unit of added value among large industrial enterprises decreased by 3.8% year-on-year in the same period.
“Exports, a key driver of economic growth, have performed impressively this year,” Yao stated. In the first three quarters, China's exports increased by 6.2% year-on-year, reflecting the country's sustained competitiveness in global trade.
Yao attributed this strong export performance to three main factors: China’s robust and comprehensive industrial and supply chains, its formidable production capacity, and the vitality of the private sector, which constitutes 55% of the economy. “Therefore, I anticipate that China’s import and export activities will maintain positive momentum over the next two months,” he asserted.
However, Yao also highlighted pressing issues that need attention. By the end of September, the total accounts receivable for enterprises across the country reached 25.72 trillion yuan, representing nearly 30% of the working capital of designated industrial enterprises. This has significantly strained cash flow for businesses. Additionally, inventory levels have reached a historical high of 6.74 trillion yuan.
“To tackle these challenges, the government is implementing policy measures to stimulate investment in three key areas: infrastructure, industry, and property,” Yao explained. “Currently, the most promising area for investment is industrial investment, particularly in large-scale equipment upgrades,” he added.