ROME, 7th December, 2024 (WAM) -- World cereal utilisation is forecast to grow by 0.6 percent to 2 859 million tonnes in 2024/25, led by anticipated increases in food consumption of rice and wheat, according to FAO’s new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.
A significant revision from October now forecasts that global cereal stocks will decline by 0.7% from their opening levels, resulting in a global cereal stock-to-use ratio of 30.1% for 2024/25, down from 30.8% in the previous year but still indicating “a comfortable supply level” globally.
Global cereal production in 2024 is forecast to decline by around 0.6% from the previous year to 2 841 million tonnes, a downward revision from October, yet still the second-largest output on record.
Global wheat output for 2024 is expected to be on par with 2023, at 789 million tonnes, while maize output is forecast to decline by 1.9% from the previous year to 1 271 million tonnes, due to lower-than-expected yields in the European Union and the United States of America. FAO’s forecast for world rice production in 2024/25 has changed slightly, pointing to a 0.8% annual increase to a record high of 538.8 million tonnes.
For 2025, softer wheat prices may discourage area expansions of the winter wheat crop underway in the northern hemisphere. Below-normal rainfall in key wheat growing regions in the Russian Federation has led to low soil moisture levels, affecting planting operations. By contrast, favourable soil moisture and government support policies, along remunerative prices, should spur expanded plantings in China and India.
International trade in cereals in 2024/25 is now forecast at 484 million tonnes, down 4.6% from the previous year. Global wheat and maize trade volumes are expected to decline, while rice trade is predicted to increase.