ABU DHABI, 12th February, 2026 (WAM) -- New research from NYU Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Arabian Centre for Climate and Environmental Sciences (Mubadala ACCESS) shows that unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea played a key role in intensifying the extreme rainfall experienced across the UAE on 16th April 2024.
The study found that as a weather system moved across the region, it drew on increased atmospheric moisture associated with warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures, leading to stronger thunderstorms and heavier rainfall over parts of the UAE, including Dubai, Al Ain, and Abu Dhabi. While large-scale atmospheric dynamics were important in shaping the event, the research demonstrates that elevated sea surface temperatures enhanced moisture availability and strongly affected where and how much rain fell.
Using a combination of numerical modeling and satellite observations, the researchers showed that warmer sea surface temperatures increased atmospheric moisture in the days leading up to 16th April, resulting in more intense convective storms over the Arabian Gulf region. Under cooler ocean conditions, the analysis indicates that a portion of the precipitation would likely have occurred farther north, over the Zagros Mountains, rather than over the UAE.
“Our findings show how ocean conditions can influence regional weather systems and rainfall patterns,” said Basit Khan, researcher at NYU Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala ACCESS and lead author. “By better understanding these interactions, we can support improved weather forecasting and preparedness across the region.”
The research was conducted by Basit Khan, Subrota Halder, Zouhair Lachkar, Francesco Paparella, and Olivier Pauluis from NYU Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala ACCESS.
The study highlights the importance of ocean–atmosphere interactions in shaping weather in arid regions and contributes to ongoing efforts to refine climate and weather models. These insights can help inform future forecasting, risk assessment, and long-term planning as part of broader initiatives to enhance climate resilience in the UAE and the wider region.
“Our work adds to the scientific understanding of how large-scale environmental processes affect regional weather,” said Professor of Mathematics, Co-Principal Investigator of Mubadala ACCESS Olivier Pauluis. “This knowledge is essential for developing robust forecasting tools and supporting evidence-based decision-making.”
The findings underscore the value of continued research into regional climate systems and the role of ocean conditions in influencing weather variability across the Arabian Gulf.