ROME, 5th September, 2026 (WAM) -- Global cereal production in 2026 is now forecast at 2 980 million tonnes, down 2.0% from 2025 but still the second-largest harvest on record, according to the new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released by UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
The forecast for world maize output has been revised down to 1 309 million tonnes, as worsening crop prospects in France and Poland are anticipated to more than offset better-than-earlier-expected yields in Argentina and Brazil. By contrast, the forecast for global wheat production has been raised to 810.7 million tonnes, which would be 3.8% below the 2025 level though but still representing the second largest outturn on record. Global rice output is anticipated to decline to 553.1 million tonnes, down by 1.9% in 2026/27 from the all-time high reached in the previous season, due to reduced producer margins and weather conditions mostly associated with El Niño.
FAO’s updated forecast for world total cereal utilization in 2026/27 stands at 2 965 million tonnes, 0.2% higher than in the previous year, with utilization of coarse grains and rice expected to increase while that of wheat to decline.
World cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2027 are forecast to reach 947.2 million tonnes, slightly above opening levels due in part to a build-up in wheat reserves in the Russian Federation and Ukraine linked to restricted export routes. The resulting world cereal stocks-to-use at the end of seasons in 2026/27 is forecast at 31.6%, down from 31.9% in the previous season, but still indicating a relatively comfortable global supply situation from a historical perspective. FAO also forecasts that world trade in cereals will likely decline from record levels in 2026/27 to 509.3 million tonnes.