PARIS, 13th November, 2026 (WAM) -- World oil demand is forecast to fall by 2.7 mb/d in 2026, to 102.3 mb/d, before rebounding by 2 mb/d in 2027, according to the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) for November 2026.
The year-on-year decline is set to ease to 2.7 mb/d in 4Q26, from an average 4.4 mb/d over 2Q26 and 3Q26. LPG/ethane and naphtha will account for around 80% of the increase next year as supply chains normalise, while transport fuels will see very modest gain, as high prices accelerate electrification and fuel efficiencies across the global car fleet, the monthly report noted.
Global oil demand, it said, continues to be weighed down by ongoing disruptions to exports of refined products and LPG from the Gulf, remaining at roughly half of pre-war levels, and high fuel prices.
The pace of the contraction is nevertheless set to narrow to 2.7 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q26, compared with declines of 5 mb/d in 2Q26 and 3.8 mb/d in 3Q26 – for an annual average fall of 2.7 mb/d. The shortfall versus 2025 levels is expected to ease further before shifting to growth around March next year, resulting in an overall increase of 2 mb/d in 2027. Petrochemical feedstocks – the products most affected by the war – will account for almost 80% of 2027 gains, while high prices, electrification and fuel efficiency in the global vehicle fleet dampen the rebound in road fuels demand.
''Our November supply and demand balances suggest that the global oil market will return to a surplus in 4Q26, with a more substantial build in 2027. As always, downside risks to the forecast persist, as attacks on shipping undermine maritime security, which is pivotal to a sustained recovery,'' the report said.
Following an increase of 3 mb/d in September, global oil supply rose by a further 2.3 mb/d to 105.4 mb/d in October on lofty Gulf exports despite ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers. The higher flows underpin a sharp upward revision to 4Q26 supply, while 2027 has been lowered due to constrained Iranian shipments. After a decline of 4.8 mb/d in 2026, oil supply is expected to rebound by 6.6 mb/d, reaching an average of 108.1 mb/d in 2027.